Military

US Warns of False Flag as ‘Centralized Evacuation’ of Civilians Ordered in Russian-Occupied Eastern Ukraine

February 18, 2022Nolan Peterson
civilian evacuation ukraine

A Ukrainian special operations soldier in March 2021. Photo by Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

KYIV, Ukraine — Events are rapidly unfolding in Ukraine’s war zone, raising the specter of a full-scale Russian invasion in the coming days. On Friday, the leader of a Russian puppet government in occupied eastern Ukraine announced a “centralized evacuation” of civilians into Russia.


Denis Pushilin, leader of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, made an unfounded claim that Ukrainian forces are poised for a military takeover of Russian-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine and said that “women, children and people of a frail age” should evacuate into Russia’s Rostov region.


In the Donbas, Ukrainian forces have been at war for nearly eight years against a force of Russian regulars and conscripts raised from Russian-occupied territory. There is no evidence that Ukrainian forces are ready to go on the offensive to retake Russian-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine. 




Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines in eastern Ukraine say they are currently under strict orders to obey the cease-fire and to not respond to attacks from the Russian side. Likewise, officials in Kyiv have repeatedly denied any plans to retake the Donbas by force.


The US has warned for weeks that Russia intends to orchestrate a so-called false flag event to justify a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Beginning the morning of Feb. 17, fighting escalated along the front lines in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. The uptick in violence, which included the shelling of a kindergarten in Ukrainian-controlled territory on Feb. 17, spurred concerns that Russia is orchestrating a pretense to justify a major offensive.


“If shelling and or shooting breaks into something sustained, this would be especially worrying,” said Peter Zwack, a retired US Army brigadier general who serves as the senior Russia and Eurasia fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University.


“I imagine tensions are quite high along the line, which makes everything more hair-trigger overall, and certainly more ripe for a major and highly publicized provocation, which becomes especially perilous if civilians are casualties,” Zwack told Coffee or Die Magazine.


civilian evacuation ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, on a trip to the Donbas front lines on April 8, 2021. Photo courtesy of Ukrainian Presidential Administration.

According to the US, Russia has now massed from 160,000 to 190,000 troops “in and near Ukraine,” marking a significant uptick from the 100,000 Russian soldiers the US had estimated were in those areas on Jan. 30. Michael Carpenter, US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, announced the revised estimate Friday.


“This is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War,” Carpenter said in Vienna.


Russia’s proxy forces in eastern Ukraine also claimed on Friday to have thwarted multiple acts of sabotage by Ukrainian forces, including an attack at an ammonia reservoir in the city of Horlivka. Russia’s proxies also accused Ukrainian forces of plots to attack oil and chlorine reservoirs. 


Ukrainian officials denied the unfounded allegations and blamed the Russian side for the sharp uptick in combat at eastern Ukraine’s front lines.


“We categorically refute Russian disinformation reports on Ukraine’s alleged offensive operations or acts of sabotage in chemical production facilities,” Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba said Friday on Twitter. “Ukraine does not conduct or plan any such actions in the Donbas. We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution only.”


Echoing previous earlier US assessments, Carpenter said Friday that Russia was plotting to fabricate a so-called false flag event to justify a full invasion. 


Russian invasion
Soldiers from Ukraine’s 79th Air Assault Brigade at a trench position near the town of Stanytsia Luhanska, Ukraine, in October 2021. Photo by Nolan Peterson/Coffee or Die Magazine.

“We are aware that Russia is intent on creating a pretext to justify an invasion into Ukraine,” Carpenter said. “We have reports from multiple sources that provide detail on Russia’s efforts to fabricate supposed “Ukrainian provocations” and shape a public narrative that would justify a Russian invasion.”


Carpenter also refuted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unfounded claim of a “genocide” ongoing within the Donbas region at the hands of pro-Ukrainian forces — an assertion for which there is no evidence.


“[Russia] cynically tries to portray Ukraine, NATO, and the United States as aggressors at the same time as it positions a massive strike force, threatening to invade its neighbor,” Carpenter said.


According to recently reported US estimates, Russia has about 110 battalion tactical groups massed near Ukraine — a force that represents roughly two-thirds of Russia’s ground combat power potential. That force is focused on Ukraine’s border — an area that accounts for only about 10% of Russia’s total land borders. Russia has also forward-positioned offensive air power assets, including attack aircraft and helicopters and tactical bombers, US officials say.


The deployment of Russian National Guard units near Ukraine is a particularly troubling development over the past several weeks, many analysts say, since those forces would presumably be used as an occupation force. 


“The Russian Federation is now in a position to further invade the sovereign territory of Ukraine at any moment, if President Putin so chooses,” Carpenter said. 


Read Next: Fighting in Eastern Ukraine Sparks Fears of Russian False Flag To Justify Invasion



Nolan Peterson
Nolan Peterson
Nolan Peterson is a senior editor for Coffee or Die Magazine and the author of Why Soldiers Miss War. A former US Air Force special operations pilot and a veteran of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Nolan is now a conflict journalist and author whose adventures have taken him to all seven continents. In addition to his memoirs, Nolan has published two fiction collections. He lives in Kyiv, Ukraine, with his wife, Lilya.
More from Coffee or Die Magazine
dear jack mandaville
Dear Jack: Which Historic Battle Would You Want To Witness?

Ever wonder how much Jack Mandaville would f*ck sh*t up if he went back in time? The American Revolution didn't even see him coming.

west point time capsule
West Point Time Capsule Yields Centuries-Old Coins

A nearly 200-year-old West Point time capsule that at first appeared to yield little more than dust contains hidden treasure, the US Military Academy said.

Ouija Board aircraft carrier
Low-Tech ‘Ouija Boards’ Have Helped Aircraft Carriers Operate for Decades

Since the 1920s, a low-tech tabletop replica of an aircraft carrier’s flight deck has been an essential tool in coordinating air operations.

Army vs. Navy mascot
The Navy Goat vs. the Army Mule: Mascot Origin Stories

For nearly as long as the Army-Navy football rivalry, the academies’ hoofed mascots have stared each other down from the sidelines. Here are their stories.

ukraine long-range weapon
Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Has Developed a Long-Range Weapon, a Day After Strike Deep Inside Russia

Zelenskyy said on his Telegram channel the weapon was produced by Ukraine’s Ministry of Strategic Industries but gave no other details.

ambush
7 of the Best Movie Ambush Scenes of All Time

Ambushes make for great action scenes. Here are seven of the best to ever grace the big screen.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, with his daughter, center right, reportedly named Ju Ae, review the honor guard during their visit to the navy headquarter in North Korea
North Korea Launches Missile Toward Sea After US Flies Bomber During Drills

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement that the launch occurred Wednesday but gave no further details, such as how far the missile flew.

  • About Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Careers
Contact Us
Contact Us
© 2023 Coffee or Die Magazine. All Rights Reserved